What will happen in Iraq before 2010

[Mazer]

I'm just curious what people think the events in Iraq will be before the close of this decade. Vote for all the events you think will occur and then, if you want to, post a timeline of the ones you voted for.

[floydian slip]

I dont see it getting better until the U.S. Military complex leaves, I dont see them leaving before 2010 either, if at all. I see it as a China Russian Islamic proxy war at the expense of the Iraqi people draining America's(the coalition) money and military. I think there will be more bombings and explosions growing in intensity and sophistication. Its a no win situation. They will hate us for staying and hate us for leaving them hanging in the wind.

Can a country be given a democracy at the point of a gun? Or is it something the people need to do on their own. What if France invaded the colonies in 1750 and drove out the British... then they set up some military bases and told us were are free All the while patroling our strees for insurgents.

[theknife]

Originally Posted by floydian slip

Can a country be given a democracy at the point of a gun? Or is it something the people need to do on their own. What if France invaded the colonies in 1750 and drove out the British... then they set up some military bases and told us were are free All the while patroling our strees for insurgents.

you can't force people into democracy - they have to be willing to stand up and fight for it on thier own. if they are not willing or able, they are not ready. independence day for Iraq will be the day the US leaves.

[albed]

Yep, just like the US fought for it's democracy with no help at all from the french. That's the way it's gotta be alright.



Not to mention post war Germany and Japan. No one forced democracy on them at the point of a gun eh?




public schools
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[Mazer]

My timeline for the above options: December 2005 the constitution will be ratified, mid 2007 the infrastructure of Iraq will be mostly rebuilt to include roads, oil pipelines, water and power utilities, and industrial complexes, late 2007 a phased pullout of US troops will begin that will last at least three years, and around the same time terrorist activity against Iraqi citizens will step up, and in 2010 a separatist movement will gain a large following but will be mostly unsecessful as Iraq's economy and military gain strength early in the next decade.

[theknife]

Originally Posted by albed

Yep, just like the US fought for it's democracy with no help at all from the french. That's the way it's gotta be alright.



Not to mention post war Germany and Japan. No one forced democracy on them at the point of a gun eh?




public schools
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the 13 colonies stood up and initiated the fight for their freedom on thier own because they wanted it that bad. the iraqis didn't want freedom bad enough to start the fight for it, they don't want it bad enough to sustain the fight on thier own, and they aren't going to get freedom from us.

meanwhile, post-war germany and japan are completely irrelevant comparisons. both had been industrialized, relatively well-educated societies with experience in democracy prior to WW2 - iraq is a tribal, relatively undeveloped society whose primary religion is incompatible with democracy.

so the discussion of any "timeline" is a euphemism for the casualtie rate of the brave men and women who will be cannon fodder for Bush's disastrous foriegn policy fantasies, because the unsaid assumption is that X number of them will have to die for your timeline. perhaps that might be a more relevant poll to measure these goals - in bodies rather than time: how many American deaths is the Iraqi constitution worth to you? or re-establishing iraqi infrastructure? or propping up the Iraqi economy? or the establishment of iraqi civil rights?

the answer is zero.

[albed]

Originally Posted by theknife

the 13 colonies stood up and initiated the fight for their freedom on thier own because they wanted it that bad. the iraqis didn't want freedom bad enough to start the fight for it, they don't want it bad enough to sustain the fight on thier own, and they aren't going to get freedom from us.

I would have thought a liberal propaganda machine like you would at least recall the recent uprising brought about by Bush one's encouragement after Desert Storm.


Here's a few more examples to help you understand that Iraqis want freedom bad enough to start their own fight for it.

The Great Iraqi Revolution. May 1920-Feb. 1921-Rebellion by Iraqi Arabs against the rule of the British Mandate. The rebellion was suppressed by the British military. This can be considered the First Anglo-Iraqi War.

Kurdish Revolt. 1922-1924 -Rebellion by Iraqi Kurds against the British Mandate.

Shia Tribal Revolt. 1935-Shiite uprising against the Iraqi government.

Kurdish Revolt. 1943 (July to October)-Rebellion suppressed by the Iraqi Army and the British RAF.

Kurdish Revolt. 1961-1970. After a period of relative calm, Iraqi government promises of Kurdish autonomy, or self-rule, went unfulfilled, sparking discontent and eventual rebellion

Kurdish Revolt -March, 1974 - In March, 1974, Kurdish rebels led by Mullah Mustafa Barzani (having survived an assassination attempt) rebelled against the government. The Kurds felt that the government was not living up to the agreement which ended the previous revolt. The Iraqi Kurds were supported by the Shah (King) of neighboring Iran, who sought to put pressure on the Iraqi government over a border dispute. The Kurds were also assisted by the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who opposed the Iraqi government due to its friendly relations with the Soviet Union. After an agreement between the Shah of Iran and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in 1975, (which temporarily settled the border dispute until the Iran-Iraq War began in 1980), the Kurds collapsed under intense Iraqi military pressure. The CIA, allied to the Shah, also suspended aid. Kurds cite this betrayal by two key allies as evidence supporting their future distrust of American attempts to incite them to fight Saddam Hussein’s forces in the 1990s and in the early years of the 21st Century.

Kurdish Revolt.1983-1988. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraqi Kurds, aided by Iran, fought against Iraqi government forces. In 1987 and 1988, the Iraqi military used chemical weapons to kill thousands of Kurds (including many civilians) in a successful effort to break the back of the resistance.

Kurdish Revolt.1991. Encouraged by the stunning defeat of Saddam’s forces in Kuwait and spurred by appeals by President George H. W. Bush of the U.S., Kurds rose up against the Iraqi government With the bulk of his elite forces having escaped from the fighting in Kuwait and southern Iraq, Saddam was able to quell the revolt, causing hundreds of thousands of Kurdish refugees to flee into neighboring Turkey and Iran to escape.

Shiite Revolt. 1991. Encouraged by the stunning defeat of Saddam’s forces in Kuwait and spurred by appeals by President George H. W. Bush of the U.S., the Shiites of southern Iraq rose up against the Iraqi government, only to be crushed by Saddam’s forces. Sporadic guerrilla resistance continued, with the bulk of the Shiite fighting forces seeking refuge in neighboring Shiite Iran.

http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_iraq.html

Originally Posted by theknife

meanwhile, post-war germany and japan are completely irrelevant comparisons. both had been industrialized, relatively well-educated societies with experience in democracy prior to WW2 - iraq is a tribal, relatively undeveloped society whose primary religion is incompatible with democracy.

They were forced into democracy at the point of a gun. That was the point I was making. It can be done.



Hmmm...CIA Factbook Iraq:
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 13.6%
industry: 58.6%
services: 27.8% (2004 est.)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...s/iz.html#Econ

I recall reading the Iraqis were generally well educated as well.
Pretty impressive cities too for being relatively undeveloped.
Christ knife do you actually know anything at all about Iraq?

[Mazer]

Originally Posted by theknife

meanwhile, post-war germany and japan are completely irrelevant comparisons. both had been industrialized, relatively well-educated societies with experience in democracy prior to WW2 - iraq is a tribal, relatively undeveloped society whose primary religion is incompatible with democracy.

I'll have to disagree with this entire paragraph. It takes a relatively high level of industrial sophistication to efficiently harvest crude oil and process it into usable chemicals, not to mention a large workforce of college educated geological engineers. Iraq has a very high literacy rate, and prior to Hussein's war with Iran, and his invasion of Kuwait which led to UN sanctions against him, Iraq had a very strong economy like all OPEC nations had. Iraq does have it's tribal and nomadic traditions, but then America has Amish and Mennonites and they don't represent the majority either. While Iraq has been under the rule of one monarch or an other since it's present borders were drawn this doesn't preclude them from governing themselves. Islam is far from incompatible with Democracy and I give you Turkey as an example.

If you think the cost of this war should be measured only in American deaths then so be it. I think if you study previous wars we've fought in the past you'll find that the price we're paying now is relatively cheap, and it's costing Iraq much, much more than us. They once had a great army of brave soldiers, but because their leader lacked the conviction to train, dicipline, and properly arm them, their lives have been a terrible waste. Had they been better prepared we wouldn't have considered an invasion and they'd still be alive today. They died in vain fighiting our soldiers, but they died so their nation could be free. And the death of an Iraqi soldier is as great a sacrifice as the death of an American soldier. How dare you cheapen their sacrifice and the price they've paid by measuring this war only in American deaths? Iraq is paying the greatest cost for their former dictator's greed and lust for power. Never forget that.

[naz]

A federal democracy in the Iraqi context doesn't work. it's not a natural country in that it had it's borders drawn for it. Democracy in the Middle East is a hard enough thing to achieve anyway, but especially in this case when you have three very different countries subsued into one.

Personally, I expect the insurgency to gather pace, us and uk public opinion to force them to declare victory and leave, large scale civil strife between the shiites and sunni populations and kurdistan to decalre independence. Iran could make things difficult down south too.