Resistance is futile - P2P-Zone

TankGirl · 30-11-02, 07:36 AM

Here is an excellent essay on p2p by Robert X. Cringely:

Resistance is Futile
How Peer-to-Peer File Sharing Is Likely to Change Big Media

He makes an interesting comparasion between today's media monopolies and the situation in oil business in the 1920s when the Anglo-Persian Oil Company had a monopoly on oil production in the Middle East. When the Gulf Oil Company of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, got into Kuwait and obtained a license to search oil from the Al-Sabah family, the ruling monopolists tried all sorts of dirty tricks to delay the inevitable...

Quote:

The Anglo-Persian Oil Company did not like Gulf's actions, but they were even more dismayed to learn that Gulf couldn't be told to just go to hell. Andrew Mellon, of the Pittsburgh Mellons, was the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, and he wasn't about to let his oil company be pushed around by the British Foreign Office. So Anglo-Persian and the Foreign Office did their best to delay Gulf, which worked for several years. They lied a little, lost a few maps, failed to read a telegram or two, and when Gulf still didn't go away, they turned to acting stupid. As the absolute regional experts on oil exploration, they offered to do Gulf's job, to save the Americans the bother if searching for oil in Kuwait by searching for them.

The Anglo-Persian Oil Company searched for oil in Kuwait for 22 years without finding a single drop.

Remember that Kuwait is smaller than Rhode Island, and not only is it sitting atop more than 60 billion barrels of oil, it has places where oil has been known for more than 3,000 years to seep all the way to the surface. Yet Anglo-Persian was able to fulfill its contract with Gulf and keep two oil rigs continually drilling in Kuwait for 22 years without finding oil. To drill this many dry wells required intense concentration on the part of the British drillers. They had to not only be NOT looking for oil, they had to very actively be NOT LOOKING for oil, which is even harder.

- tg

theknife · 30-11-02, 08:13 AM

Great post, TG...this guy has such a nice take on the bleak future of the entertainment industry

It just warms my heart to think of unemployed record company executives - especially at Christmas time.

[Dark] · 30-11-02, 10:04 AM

i wonder how many record execs kids use p2p???

SA_Dave · 30-11-02, 11:35 AM

Quite an interesting article indeed!

Quote:

So movies, while they may be hurt by peer-to-peer, won't be killed by it. But print publishing and music recording could be seriously hurt. Maybe this is good, maybe it is bad, but probably, it is inevitable.

CDs and books in particular are ridiculously expensive, while DVDs aren't nearly as lacking in value for money. They could all do with a bit of price slashing though!

Quote:

They had to not only be NOT looking for oil, they had to very actively be NOT LOOKING for oil, which is even harder.

Haha!

That kills me!

Quote:

Originally posted by TankGirl
Resistance is Futile

So I was right about you all along tg?!

Hehe.

pod · 30-11-02, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SA_Dave
CDs and books in particular are ridiculously expensive

I don't see how books are overpriced. $6-8 is hardly overpriced for a paperback providing hours, or even days, of entertainment.

theknife · 30-11-02, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pod

I don't see how books are overpriced. $6-8 is hardly overpriced for a paperback providing hours, or even days, of entertainment.

well, value is a relative concept...but I agree with you - books seem like a good deal to me, too (although it's funny - I'm a voracious reader, but I rarely ever buy books coz I'm a big fan of the library).

...the publishing industry doesn't get much press here in the digital revolution, but it has very much the same genetic makeup as it's evil step-sister, the recording industry. Same blockbuster mentality prevails (something like 8 authors are responsible for some 60% percent of all book sales), same tightly controlled access to distribution channels. They are just as vulnerable as the recording industry to technological upheaval...if and when e-book readers ever take off.

JackSpratts · 30-11-02, 05:37 PM

an author might get a 50,000 dollar advance. he might sell 5000 copies of his first (and last?) book but after that he'll get say 1-2 dollars for each additional copy if he does sell anymore. so you're looking at about two dollars a book going to a writer who sells 50,000 copies. a lot of that goes to his lawyers, managers etc (around 40%) while the lions share of the cover price goes to the house and store and printers.

a hardcover author is happy to clear $1 a copy for his work when the average hardcover now sells for 25 - 35 dollars. the same goes for paperbacks, where the author gets much less.

soon he might sell his books on the net for say $4.95 for his latest and 1.95 after a few years and keep all the money. he'll net 3 or 4 times what he’s doing now and the books will sell for less than a third of today's price.

are they overpriced? in light of these new economics absolutely. the internet changed everything in that regard.

- js.

multi · 30-11-02, 06:59 PM

there are so many patterns in the way things like this go
the popular use of recording media on magnetic tape offered these ppl the same challenges....
they didnt learn that then so they must push to do it the hard way....

the oil companys on the other hand have more power than ever and have thwarted many attempts to create new forms of
energy sources that would replace the current methods of tranportation, and are quite happy to keep making money from polluting the planet with their products by vehicle emmissions and their leaking boats (that last spill is most horrible and quite distressing)something still needs to be done about them too!

theknife · 30-11-02, 07:47 PM

imho, the publishing industry does not fit this pattern so neatly...

I mean, mp3's and d/ling music clearly represented improvements over previous media in terms of accessibility, applications, available content, usage (not to mention price

) etc...but the improvements of e-books over paper are not so obvious to me.

i've never curled up with an e-book ( i suppose i will someday)...but my library is right across the street, so accessiblity, choice in content, and price are not issues... i harbor no festering resentment over the current book publishing system...so i am hard pressed to see how i will be driven into the arms of e-publishing as i was with e-music.

i believe Stephen King tried an experiment last year by releasing a short story solely online...if i remember correctly (and i may not), it was not a great success.

from the author's point of view, the new economics might make sense..but from my own viewpoint as an avid end user, i see no incentive to encourage a different business model in the book biz.

SA_Dave · 01-12-02, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by pod

I don't see how books are overpriced. $6-8 is hardly overpriced for a paperback providing hours, or even days, of entertainment.

That may be true for you, but here you'd often pay double that. The cost of educational textbooks is ridiculous. My Biochem textbook (for 2 semesters) cost about $100.

I live in Africa btw, so forgive me for looking at things from that perspective. It's even worse in less priviledged or developed parts of the continent...

And I agree with you theknife, in that e-Books are no replacement. Many people in Africa and other developing or third-world countries don't even have access to libraries. A practical alternative to paper books would save trees and provide access to those who don't have anything at all. Satellite-based education is evolving and spreading rapidly, so it would be an ideal opportunity to make a difference.

JackSpratts · 01-12-02, 10:46 AM

epaper would make the difference here. it would be bigger than mp3s. looks like paper and it feels like paper but the text is changeable. you can d/l whatever story you want and enjoy it in a book format, then overwrite it again and again with new text and pictures (and the illustrations will move if desired). they say it's around the corner (they said that about flat screen tvs too. it took a lot longer to get them to consumers but they got here eventually).

so you'll have epaper magazines, news and book formats that you fill as needed. with the cost of distribution near zero, the price of textbooks in africa should plummet smartly.

Mazer · 01-12-02, 11:02 AM

But like all new technologis, epaper must become popular in 1st world nations before anyone would even consider making the technology available to developing countries. I don't think people will buy books bound with hundreds of sheets of epaper, the cost would be too much for most people, and eventually the book would wear out and you'd have to buy a new one. But if epaper supports multicolored animation then I think a single large sheet of epaper will replace flat screen monitors. It would be lightweight and portable, readable in full sunlight, and disposable (recyclable too). This is, after all, what is needed in poor countries.

At any rate I think these issues illustrate the democratic nature of the internet and it's influence on the world. Electronic anarchy is doing what no government would dare to do.

30-11-02, 06:59 PM	#8
multi Thanks for being with arse Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The other side of the world Posts: 10,343	there are so many patterns in the way things like this go the popular use of recording media on magnetic tape offered these ppl the same challenges.... they didnt learn that then so they must push to do it the hard way.... the oil companys on the other hand have more power than ever and have thwarted many attempts to create new forms of energy sources that would replace the current methods of tranportation, and are quite happy to keep making money from polluting the planet with their products by vehicle emmissions and their leaking boats (that last spill is most horrible and quite distressing)something still needs to be done about them too! __________________ i beat the internet - the end boss is hard Secret Temple of It

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30-11-02, 08:13 AM	#2
theknife my name is Ranking Fullstop Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Promontorium Tremendum Posts: 4,391	Great post, TG...this guy has such a nice take on the bleak future of the entertainment industry It just warms my heart to think of unemployed record company executives - especially at Christmas time.

30-11-02, 10:04 AM	#3
[Dark] 1981 - 2003 Join Date: Mar 2001 Posts: 2,126	i wonder how many record execs kids use p2p???

30-11-02, 05:37 PM	#7
JackSpratts Join Date: May 2001 Location: New England Posts: 10,017	an author might get a 50,000 dollar advance. he might sell 5000 copies of his first (and last?) book but after that he'll get say 1-2 dollars for each additional copy if he does sell anymore. so you're looking at about two dollars a book going to a writer who sells 50,000 copies. a lot of that goes to his lawyers, managers etc (around 40%) while the lions share of the cover price goes to the house and store and printers. a hardcover author is happy to clear $1 a copy for his work when the average hardcover now sells for 25 - 35 dollars. the same goes for paperbacks, where the author gets much less. soon he might sell his books on the net for say $4.95 for his latest and 1.95 after a few years and keep all the money. he'll net 3 or 4 times what he’s doing now and the books will sell for less than a third of today's price. are they overpriced? in light of these new economics absolutely. the internet changed everything in that regard. - js.

30-11-02, 07:47 PM	#9
theknife my name is Ranking Fullstop Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Promontorium Tremendum Posts: 4,391	imho, the publishing industry does not fit this pattern so neatly... I mean, mp3's and d/ling music clearly represented improvements over previous media in terms of accessibility, applications, available content, usage (not to mention price ) etc...but the improvements of e-books over paper are not so obvious to me. i've never curled up with an e-book ( i suppose i will someday)...but my library is right across the street, so accessiblity, choice in content, and price are not issues... i harbor no festering resentment over the current book publishing system...so i am hard pressed to see how i will be driven into the arms of e-publishing as i was with e-music. i believe Stephen King tried an experiment last year by releasing a short story solely online...if i remember correctly (and i may not), it was not a great success. from the author's point of view, the new economics might make sense..but from my own viewpoint as an avid end user, i see no incentive to encourage a different business model in the book biz.

01-12-02, 10:46 AM	#11
JackSpratts Join Date: May 2001 Location: New England Posts: 10,017	epaper would make the difference here. it would be bigger than mp3s. looks like paper and it feels like paper but the text is changeable. you can d/l whatever story you want and enjoy it in a book format, then overwrite it again and again with new text and pictures (and the illustrations will move if desired). they say it's around the corner (they said that about flat screen tvs too. it took a lot longer to get them to consumers but they got here eventually). so you'll have epaper magazines, news and book formats that you fill as needed. with the cost of distribution near zero, the price of textbooks in africa should plummet smartly.

01-12-02, 11:02 AM	#12
Mazer Earthbound misfit Join Date: May 2001 Location: Moses Lake, Washington Posts: 2,563	But like all new technologis, epaper must become popular in 1st world nations before anyone would even consider making the technology available to developing countries. I don't think people will buy books bound with hundreds of sheets of epaper, the cost would be too much for most people, and eventually the book would wear out and you'd have to buy a new one. But if epaper supports multicolored animation then I think a single large sheet of epaper will replace flat screen monitors. It would be lightweight and portable, readable in full sunlight, and disposable (recyclable too). This is, after all, what is needed in poor countries. At any rate I think these issues illustrate the democratic nature of the internet and it's influence on the world. Electronic anarchy is doing what no government would dare to do.