RIAA Legal Threat Cuts P2P Downloads by 23% - P2P-Zone

Marius · 21-08-03, 05:53 PM

http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/6/32456.html

RIAA Legal Threat Cuts P2P Downloads by 23%

By Tony Smith

Posted: 21/08/2003 at 13:58 GMT

The campaign launched in May by the Recording Industry Ass. of America (RIAA) to target individual music sharers appears to be scaring punters away from file-sharing services, the latest figures from market watcher NPD appear to show.

NPD tracks consumer file-sharing activity. It calculated that 14.5 million US households downloaded music files in April. In May the figure fell to 12.7 million, and dropped to 10.4 million in June, the company said today.

On a statistical note, the figures listed are calculated from the activity of a sample of 40,000 users, NPD said.

In April some 852 million songs were acquired via the Internet. Come June, the figure fell to 655 million. April, says NPD, was a record-setting month, but the fact it doesn't provide a figure for May, suggests the dip was relatively small.

Indeed, the average number of files downloaded per household grew between April and June, from 59 to 63.

The figures suggest that while hard-core downloaders are grabbing ever more tracks for themselves, more casual punters are holding fire.

"Our data suggests that the RIAA's legal tactics have more of an effect on the attitudes and actions of lighter downloaders," said NPD VP Russ Crupnick in a statement. The vast majority of songs downloaded are from P2P services, he added, implying that some at least come from paid-for download services.

Apple launched its Mac-based iTunes Music Service at the end of April, but even its impressive success - 6.5 million songs sold by the end of July - is nowhere near enough to counter the apparent decline between April and June. Similar services aimed at Windows users, such as BuyMusic and Listen.com, are likely to do better, but some have come too late to account for much more of the 197 million fewer songs downloaded between April and June than Apple does.

Certainly we'll need to see July, August and September figures to see whether all those songs that are now not being nabbed for free from P2P services are being paid for at Apple and the other commercial sites.

If the two figures don't match, it will put the nail in the coffin of the argument that punters would pay for music if they could, and confirm the view of the RIAA and its ilk that the only way to stop them is to threaten legal action.

However, a more interesting statistic to see would be the number of sample tracks that punters listen to at the iTunes Music Store, BuyMusic and so on. P2P pundits often claim that Grokster, Kazaa, Morpheus and the like are used more for checking out new music rather than acquiring it free of charge. If that's the case, we'd expect to see the number of sample tracks users are listening to increasing at the same rate that the number of P2P downloads are falling.

Instead of downloading potentially poorly encoded or virally infected files, music fans are choosing to sample music at the 'legitimate' sites before making music download or, more likely, CD purchases.

Such a trend - if it emerges - is both good and bad news for the P2P service providers. Good, because it shows that their users really aren't interested in pirating music, rather in increasing their exposure to new artists and sounds. The bad news is that they prefer to use a clearly above-board service to do so, and not a P2P with its perceived air - rightly or wrongly - of illegitimacy.

If NPD's analysis is correct, and it's the threat of legal action that is keeping punters away from the P2P services, it will be interesting to see what effect the RIAA's pledge not to pursue small-scale downloaders has as it becomes more widely known.
=====================

Let's hope the trend reverses!

Marius

SA_Dave · 22-08-03, 01:27 PM

This isn't a new trend. It's well-documented (on this board for instance) that this is a typical situation during the "summer" months.

assorted · 22-08-03, 02:56 PM

anecdotally, i helped my brother configure kazaa to stop sharing once the riaa lost the verizon case. I knew the RIAA would start targetting endusers for cash-money and I knew I would have felt guilty if they targeted my 4,000+ file-sharing yet not too tech savvy brother and he had to pay an egregious settling fee to avoid court.

i doubt mine is the only story out there. i know its politically prudent to rub the RIAA's nose in the idea that what they are doing is having no effect, but it probably IS having an effect, just not nearly as much of one as they would like. Regardless, my brother is still DOWNLOADING like a fiend. He's just not sharing.

Still, though I realize from a logical standpoint that if everyone did what I did with my brother (making him a leech), file sharing would end, I also am glad I did it regardless because I'm happy to know he's safe from the greedheads.

Of course, I'm still sharing when I'm on!

cindy · 22-08-03, 07:24 PM

yes, THE EFFECT that is having is that it is ALIENATING the RIAA's userbase in esscence they are slitting THEIR OWN throats.

blady@grokster · 23-08-03, 06:45 PM

do these percentages include encrypted networks?

blunt · 24-08-03, 01:14 PM

I'm still sharing, but must admit to feeling a bit nervous. Don't know whether the RIAA's reach stretches over the atlantic to the UK, but I'm still feeling paranoid.

Kazzaa files have always been pretty patchy - some are ok, but others are very low grade. But today, for the first time I've had the hassle of downloading deliberately messed up files. Tried to download 'Lumidee - never leave you' and kept getting corrupted downloads. After six attempts, I restricted the number of users I was downloading from to two, and finally got a clean copy, but what a load of hassle, just to get one song.

I think in the long term the RIAA won't win, and they know it, but until they give up, things could get uncomfortable for a while.

21-08-03, 05:53 PM	#1
Marius Registered User Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 58	RIAA Legal Threat Cuts P2P Downloads by 23% http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/6/32456.html RIAA Legal Threat Cuts P2P Downloads by 23% By Tony Smith Posted: 21/08/2003 at 13:58 GMT The campaign launched in May by the Recording Industry Ass. of America (RIAA) to target individual music sharers appears to be scaring punters away from file-sharing services, the latest figures from market watcher NPD appear to show. NPD tracks consumer file-sharing activity. It calculated that 14.5 million US households downloaded music files in April. In May the figure fell to 12.7 million, and dropped to 10.4 million in June, the company said today. On a statistical note, the figures listed are calculated from the activity of a sample of 40,000 users, NPD said. In April some 852 million songs were acquired via the Internet. Come June, the figure fell to 655 million. April, says NPD, was a record-setting month, but the fact it doesn't provide a figure for May, suggests the dip was relatively small. Indeed, the average number of files downloaded per household grew between April and June, from 59 to 63. The figures suggest that while hard-core downloaders are grabbing ever more tracks for themselves, more casual punters are holding fire. "Our data suggests that the RIAA's legal tactics have more of an effect on the attitudes and actions of lighter downloaders," said NPD VP Russ Crupnick in a statement. The vast majority of songs downloaded are from P2P services, he added, implying that some at least come from paid-for download services. Apple launched its Mac-based iTunes Music Service at the end of April, but even its impressive success - 6.5 million songs sold by the end of July - is nowhere near enough to counter the apparent decline between April and June. Similar services aimed at Windows users, such as BuyMusic and Listen.com, are likely to do better, but some have come too late to account for much more of the 197 million fewer songs downloaded between April and June than Apple does. Certainly we'll need to see July, August and September figures to see whether all those songs that are now not being nabbed for free from P2P services are being paid for at Apple and the other commercial sites. If the two figures don't match, it will put the nail in the coffin of the argument that punters would pay for music if they could, and confirm the view of the RIAA and its ilk that the only way to stop them is to threaten legal action. However, a more interesting statistic to see would be the number of sample tracks that punters listen to at the iTunes Music Store, BuyMusic and so on. P2P pundits often claim that Grokster, Kazaa, Morpheus and the like are used more for checking out new music rather than acquiring it free of charge. If that's the case, we'd expect to see the number of sample tracks users are listening to increasing at the same rate that the number of P2P downloads are falling. Instead of downloading potentially poorly encoded or virally infected files, music fans are choosing to sample music at the 'legitimate' sites before making music download or, more likely, CD purchases. Such a trend - if it emerges - is both good and bad news for the P2P service providers. Good, because it shows that their users really aren't interested in pirating music, rather in increasing their exposure to new artists and sounds. The bad news is that they prefer to use a clearly above-board service to do so, and not a P2P with its perceived air - rightly or wrongly - of illegitimacy. If NPD's analysis is correct, and it's the threat of legal action that is keeping punters away from the P2P services, it will be interesting to see what effect the RIAA's pledge not to pursue small-scale downloaders has as it becomes more widely known. ===================== Let's hope the trend reverses! Marius

22-08-03, 02:56 PM	#3
assorted WAH! Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 725	anecdotally, i helped my brother configure kazaa to stop sharing once the riaa lost the verizon case. I knew the RIAA would start targetting endusers for cash-money and I knew I would have felt guilty if they targeted my 4,000+ file-sharing yet not too tech savvy brother and he had to pay an egregious settling fee to avoid court. i doubt mine is the only story out there. i know its politically prudent to rub the RIAA's nose in the idea that what they are doing is having no effect, but it probably IS having an effect, just not nearly as much of one as they would like. Regardless, my brother is still DOWNLOADING like a fiend. He's just not sharing. Still, though I realize from a logical standpoint that if everyone did what I did with my brother (making him a leech), file sharing would end, I also am glad I did it regardless because I'm happy to know he's safe from the greedheads. Of course, I'm still sharing when I'm on! __________________ I hate hate haters

23-08-03, 06:45 PM	#5
blady@grokster Registered User Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 18	numbers do these percentages include encrypted networks?

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22-08-03, 01:27 PM	#2
SA_Dave Guardian of the Maturation Chamber Join Date: May 2002 Location: Unimatrix Zero, Area 25 Posts: 462	This isn't a new trend. It's well-documented (on this board for instance) that this is a typical situation during the "summer" months.

22-08-03, 07:24 PM	#4
cindy aka harby Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 23	yes, THE EFFECT that is having is that it is ALIENATING the RIAA's userbase in esscence they are slitting THEIR OWN throats.

24-08-03, 01:14 PM	#6
blunt Registered User Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 6	I'm still sharing, but must admit to feeling a bit nervous. Don't know whether the RIAA's reach stretches over the atlantic to the UK, but I'm still feeling paranoid. Kazzaa files have always been pretty patchy - some are ok, but others are very low grade. But today, for the first time I've had the hassle of downloading deliberately messed up files. Tried to download 'Lumidee - never leave you' and kept getting corrupted downloads. After six attempts, I restricted the number of users I was downloading from to two, and finally got a clean copy, but what a load of hassle, just to get one song. I think in the long term the RIAA won't win, and they know it, but until they give up, things could get uncomfortable for a while.