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22-10-06, 04:28 PM | #1 |
my name is Ranking Fullstop
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Promontorium Tremendum
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Election Predictions?
just a little over two weeks until the midterm Congressional elections - anybody want to predict the outcome?
Republicans currently hold the House with 231 seat to the Dem's 203 (with Foley's seat open). GOP controls the Senate 55-44 (with 1 independent). i think the Dems will take back the House but not by much - maybe 220 to the GOP's 215. they'll come up short in the Senate, winning 48 seats to the GOP's 50 (with a Lieberman victory in CT, ostensibly as an independent, making for 2 independents seats.) the Dems could do better, but i have a nagging feeling they may have peaked a little early. we'll see... i'm not very good at election predictions for the same reason i'm a lousy gambler - i tend to bet with my heart instead of my head. |
22-10-06, 05:30 PM | #2 |
Join Date: May 2001
Location: New England
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well, i think you're right about lieberman...unless the republican (i can't even remember his name lol) increases his lead and siphons off those conservative voters now leaning towards joe. that's beginning to happen but i don't think there's enough time so joe goes back to dc for another term. chris shays, also in ct is in a much waeker position - his last victory over the same opponent wasn't very big. the ten-termer could very well lose this time. rep jodi rell, the ct gov is a lock and as much as i like dem chris murphy personally rep nancy johnson looks fairly secure too.
i make predictions - and i'm pretty good at them - but this national campaign is too murky for my crystal ball to resolve because the voters haven't decided either. however i do see the dems taking "control" of the house for what that's worth. as for the senate, i'd love to see it, but i'm not getting that vibe right now although i'm not as pessimistic as you on that one. i think i'll pick up more in the next few days as the people themselves come to terms with it all. - js. |
22-10-06, 06:19 PM | #3 | |
my name is Ranking Fullstop
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22-10-06, 06:57 PM | #4 |
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Hey Knife...
Do you think it really matters? Save up and buy a few guns and lots of ammo. Just ask the folks in Iraq the best way to vote. It is comming to be the same here, and U better be ready. Pretty sad when the govm'nt workers can vote their own paycheck and make the rest of the working people slaves to them. More than 1/2 of the voters now work for the gov one way or another.
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22-10-06, 08:02 PM | #5 | |
my name is Ranking Fullstop
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Quote:
this election is about putting some grown-ups back into Congress. |
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22-10-06, 10:17 PM | #6 |
Earthbound misfit
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Moses Lake, Washington
Posts: 2,563
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This election is about sweet revenge, knife, what the Dems are tactfully calling a referendum on the president. Grown-ups don't run for congress.
Looking over the predictions I've made on this forum over the past 4 years I don't think I'll bother to make one this year. Usually I'm pleasantly surprised by election outcomes. Besides, the ballot issues in my state are far more interesting than national politics this year, so this round of Capitol Hill Stratego is just a side show. |
22-10-06, 10:47 PM | #7 | |
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Quote:
- js. |
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24-10-06, 05:58 PM | #8 | |
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Quote:
The best we can hope for is nobody gets control of all the branches of the gov. The less power they have, the better we, the poor tax paying people will be.
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May your tote always stay tight and your edge eversharp :wink: |
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24-10-06, 07:44 PM | #9 | |
my name is Ranking Fullstop
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25-10-06, 07:33 PM | #10 | ||
my name is Ranking Fullstop
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25-10-06, 08:14 PM | #11 |
Join Date: May 2001
Location: New England
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It's simple really, says Bill Frist. Just ignore the war.
If Republican candidates want to succeed on Election Day, they should turn their focus away from the topic dominating the political debate: the Iraq war. "The challenge is to get Americans to focus on pocketbook issues, and not on the Iraq and terror issue," Frist said in an interview yesterday. I'll say! Close your eyes and it all just goes away. And oh yeah, don't forget to blame the media (except Fox) and the Democrats. You've been running things for 5 years but just pretend they have instead. It'll work - trust me. |
30-10-06, 07:15 PM | #12 | |||
my name is Ranking Fullstop
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Promontorium Tremendum
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Al Queda & The Midterm ELections
no question that Al Queda pays attention to US elections and seems to time actions to influence them. Bin Laden's video before the 2004 Presidential elections clearly helped BUsh close the deal. but to what end?
an interesting contrast in viewpoints as to AL Queda's interest in the elections... here's one theory: Quote:
so here's another take on Al Queda's thinking vis a vis the elections: Quote:
the anonymous jihadist quoted above goes on to outline the possibilities: Quote:
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30-10-06, 10:32 PM | #13 | |
Earthbound misfit
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Moses Lake, Washington
Posts: 2,563
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It's an interesting chain of thought, knife, but it doesn't explain al-Qaeda's motive. What are the long term stakes from their point of view? Why do they want us to stay in Iraq? We've been told that the Iraq war has always been a neocon strategy for American hegemony. But if what you're saying is true, could al-Qaeda have lured us into Iraq instead?
The PNAC conspiracy and the al-Qaeda-wants-America-in-Iraq conspiracy seem to contradict each other. The "jihadist" you quote just sounds like an al-Qaeda fanboy who understands neither American politics nor militant Islamist strategy. Someone who actually knew what al-Qaeda wanted wouldn't be so public with his speculations, not even to post them in an Arabic language forum. He's probably a guy not unlike some of us who posts wild ideas in public forums to provoke wild responses. Meanwhile, the translator of the above analysis gives good advice: Quote:
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31-10-06, 09:36 AM | #14 |
Join Date: May 2001
Location: New England
Posts: 10,024
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Johnson seat no longer secure
Polls show Murphy, Farrell With Slight Leads Over Republicans Susan Haigh WATERBURY, Conn. (AP) -- Popular Gov. M. Jodi Rell rallied support for Republican U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson on Monday as a new nonpartisan poll in the 5th Congressional District showed the 12-term congresswoman slightly behind Democrat challenger Chris Murphy. The district is one of three in Connecticut that Democrats are targeting as they try to gain the 15 seats they need to regain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Another new poll shows Democrat Diane Farrell 4 percentage points ahead of U.S. Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., in the 4th Congressional District, where previous polls have showed a very close race. The Hartford Courant-University of Connecticut poll in the 5th District shows Murphy with support from 46 percent of likely voters, compared with 42 percent for Johnson. Nine percent were undecided. More |
02-11-06, 04:53 AM | #15 |
flippin 'em off
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: the real world
Posts: 3,232
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It's amusing seeing campaign commercials from the democratic governor saying how well the state has done during his last term then other commercials from the democratic senatorial candidate saying how bad the state has done during the republican senators last term.
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