Iran's War Of Egos...

[albed]

Contagious stupidity. And pretty detrimental.

[Mazer]

Oh, you were giving examples. For a moment there I thought the strain had gotten to you 'cause you weren't making any sense.

So this why you have to be right all the time? You're afraid the stupidity in this forum is going to break out into a holocaust without you to stop it? You're like a superhero, albed. Somebody should crhonicle your exploits in a comic book.

[miss_silver]

i'm feeling fluffy

[miss_silver]

The Last Gasp of the Dollar?

Iran bourse opens next week

By Mike Whitney

05/07/06 "ICH" -- -- If one day the world's largest oil producers demanded euros for their barrels, "it would be the financial equivalent of a nuclear strike.” Bill O'Grady, A.G. Edwards commodities analyst

“Everybody knows the real reason for American belligerence is not the Iranian nuclear program, but the decision to launch an oil bourse where oil will be traded in euros instead of US dollars….The oil market will break the dominance of the dollar and lead to a decline of global American hegemony.” Igor Panarin, Russian political scientist

Overnight the story of Iran’s proposed oil bourse has slipped into the mainstream press exposing the real reasons behind Washington’s ongoing hostility towards Tehran. Up to this point, analysts have brushed aside the importance of the upcoming oil-exchange as a Leftist-Internet conspiracy theory unworthy of further consideration. Now, the Associated Press has clarified the issue showing that an Iran oil bourse “could lead central bankers around the world to convert some of their dollar reserves into euros, possibly causing a decline in the dollar’s value”.

Currently, the world is drowning in dollars, even a small movement could trigger a massive recession in the United States. There’s nothing remotely “conspiratorial” about this. It is simply a matter of supply and demand. If the oil bourse creates less demand for the dollar, the value of the dollar will sink accordingly; pushing energy, housing, food and other prices higher.

Oil has been linked to the dollar since the 1970s when OPEC agreed to denominate it exclusively in dollars. This provided the US a virtual monopoly which has allowed it to run huge account deficits without fear of crippling interest rate hikes. As Bill O’ Grady of A.G.Edwards said, “If OPEC decided they didn’t want dollars anymore, it would be the end of American hegemony by signaling the end to the dollar as the sole reserve currency.”

“If the dollar lost its status as the world’s reserve currency, that would force the United States to fund it massive account deficit by running a trade surplus, which would increase inflationary pressures.” (Associated Press)

There’s no prospect of the US running a trade surplus anytime soon. Bush has savaged the manufacturing sector outsourcing over 3 million jobs and shutting down plants across the country. His short-sighted “free trade” policies and enormous tax cuts for the rich ensure that Americans will be left to face skyrocketing energy costs and a hyper-inflationary greenback. There’s no way we can retool fast enough to “manufacture our way” out of the quagmire of red ink.

Currently, the national debt is a whopping $8.4 trillion with an equally harrowing $800 billion trade deficit. (7% of GDP) The ever-increasing demand for the greenback in the oil trade is the only thing that has kept the dollar from freefalling to earth. Even a small conversion to euros will erode the dollar’s value and could precipitate a sell-off.

Presently, oil is sold exclusively on the London Petroleum Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange both owned by American investors. If the bourse opens, central banks around the world will reduce their stockpiles of dollars to maintain a portion of their currency in euros. This is the logical step for Europe which buys 70% of Iran’s oil. It is also the reasonable choice for Russia which sells two-thirds of its oil to Europe but (amazingly) continues to denominate those transactions in dollars.

Washington has succeeded in maintaining its monopoly by propping up the many corrupt and repressive regimes in the Gulf States. The prudent choice for Saudi Arabia would be to move away from the debt-ridden dollar and enhance its earnings with the stronger euro. Regrettably, Uncle Sam has a gun to their head. They understand that such a transition would invite the same response that Saddam got 6 months after he converted to euros and was removed through “shock and awe”.

Regardless, of the outcome, the profligate spending, budget-busting tax cuts, and the shocking increase in the money supply (the Fed has doubled the money supply in one decade) has the greenback headed for the dumpster. Already, China and Japan (who hold an accumulated $1.7 trillion in US securities and currency) are gradually moving away from the dollar towards the euro (although the Fed has blocked the public from knowing the extent of the damage by abandoning the M-3 publication of inflows) The European Central Bank (ECB) and Japan’s central bank are frantically trying to conceal the probability of a dollar collapse by issuing carefully worded statements to allay public fears while they to prepare for an “orderly” retreat.

But, it won’t be “orderly”. The dollar has lost 5% against the euro since April and is quickly headed south. The Iran bourse could be the final jolt that pushes the greenback over the edge. This is the bitter lesson for those who choose to ignore economic fundamentals and build their house on sand. Paul Volcker anticipated this scenario in a speech last year when he said that account imbalances were as great as he had ever seen and predicted “a 75% chance of a dollar crash in the next 5 years”.

Volcker was right, but economic advisor, Peter Grandich summarized it even better when he opined, “The only one who doesn’t know the US dollar is dead is the US dollar.”

Prepare for the requiem.

From

it's Really a no brainer but not something you'll see on the news at 6. that nuke story is a bloody smokescreen!!! Hell, the Canadian dollar will finally be equal to the us dollar in no more than a year and a half. Even that should be a Major wake up call and cause for concern.

[Mazer]

This would explain why Bush wants to wean the US off of foreign oil, but I don't see how a military conflict with Iran would prevent this from happening. If anything it would encourage Iran to switch to Euros/barrel just to spite us.

There’s no prospect of the US running a trade surplus anytime soon. Bush has savaged the manufacturing sector outsourcing over 3 million jobs and shutting down plants across the country. His short-sighted “free trade” policies and enormous tax cuts for the rich ensure that Americans will be left to face skyrocketing energy costs and a hyper-inflationary greenback. There’s no way we can retool fast enough to “manufacture our way” out of the quagmire of red ink.

Only a left-wing nutcase could blame all of the the nation's problems on one man. This one paragraph challenges the entire article's validity, and I'm tempted to dismiss these dire predictions outright.

Even if the Iran oil bourse trades exclusively in Euros there's still two oil exchanges that trade in dollars and they'll cushion whatever blow the Dollar suffers. Canada and Mexico, which together export more oil to the United States than Saudia Arabia, will continue to trade oil in dollars and I don't see that ever changing. This isn't really the doomsday scenario the article portrays.

[Sinner]

Originally Posted by Mazer

Only a left-wing nutcase could blame all of the the nation's problems on one man. This one paragraph challenges the entire article's validity, and I'm tempted to dismiss these dire predictions outright.

Got that right – you can find the story at this site too

http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m23118&l=i&size=1&hd=0


This will not hurt the USA, it will hurt Iran.

For starters, Iran is not a very attractive site for a market, given the volatile nature of its politics, the U.S. sanctions against it and the lack of a fair legal system. Moreover, there is no indication that the European Union is interested in vying to become the world's central bank, which requires a willingness to run large currency deficits, he said. For the U.S., that has meant allowing cheap imports to undermine the strength of some major industries, including textiles, autos and electronics manufacturing.

PFC Energy oil analyst Jamal Qureshi said the fears stirred up by a hypothetical euro-denominated oil market in Iran or anywhere else are overblown, not least because the oil trade is just a small component of the overall global economy.

Iranian legislators earlier this year urged the government to set up the market to reduce the United States' influence over the Islamic republic's economy.

Who cares how oil is traded – Euro, Pounds, Rubles etc, it is what the oil exporters do after the transactions are made in which matters. Whether they invest them in dollar denominated securities, or instead in stocks, bonds or real estate in other countries. Chances are if oil was traded in Euros exporters would convert the Euro to US Dollars because there is far more trade between Europe and the USA then Europe and Iran. Germany for example, who is Iran's biggest trading partner, had 4.4 billion euros, or about $5.4 billion in exports, which is about 0.6% of total exports. Germany last year sold nearly 70 billion euros in goods to the United States.

Do the math.

[miss_silver]

You're right

Bush couldn't do that all by himself but the fact is, it happened. As to who did it single handedly or with help is irrelavent, it's the repercussions that counts in the end.

Ya think we want that too up here? We already pay our gas 4 frigging US dollar per gallon, and that's considered a low regular price. Soon it's gonna hit the 5$ mark and I ain't referring to canadian currency. It affect everything here, last year used to get my kilo of brown sugar for 2.20$, now it's 2.70$. Won't even dare to mention how much the price of dairy products are these days

Ron Paul has another opinion that actually makes sense...

Foreign Policy, Monetary Policy, and Gas 2002. Pipeline sabotage and fires are routine; we have been unable to prevent them. Furthermore, the general instability in the Middle East created by the war causes oil prices to rise everywhere.

The sooner we get out of Iraq and allow the Iraqis to solve their own problems the better. Soaring gasoline prices are one giant unintended consequence of the war, pure and simple.

Even so, many war hawks are seriously agitating for an attack on Iran—another major supplier of worldwide oil. They are not concerned one bit about the impact such an attack would have on the wallets of average Americans; their obsession with regime change in Iran trumps all common sense. But let me be clear: An attack on Iran, coupled with our continued presence in Iraq, could hike gas prices to $5 or $6 per gallon.

We also must understand the effect monetary policy has on gas prices. The price of gas, like the price of all things, goes up because of inflation. And inflation by definition is an increase in the money supply. The money supply is controlled by the Federal Reserve Bank, and responds to the deficits Congress creates. When deficits are excessive, as they are today, the Fed creates new dollars out of thin air to buy Treasury bills and keep interest rates artificially low. But when new money is created out of nothing, the money already in circulation loses value. Once this is recognized, prices rise-- some more rapidly than others. That’s what we see today with the cost of energy.

If we want to do something about gas prices, we should demand greatly reduced welfare and military spending, a balanced budget, and fewer regulations that interfere with the market development of alternative fuels. All subsidies and special benefits to energy companies should be ended. We also should demand a return to a sound commodity monetary system.

And in the meantime, let’s eliminate federal gas taxes at the pump. That alone would save Americans 18.4 cents per gallon. By contrast, oil companies only make about 10 cents per gallon. So maybe it’s government that’s being greedy.
Oil prices are at a level where consumers reduce consumption voluntarily. The market will work if we let it. But as great as the market economy is, it cannot overcome a foreign policy that is destined to disrupt oil supplies and threaten the world with an expanded and dangerous conflict in the Middle East. And it cannot overcome a monetary policy destined to inflate our dollars into oblivion.

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2006/tst050806.htm

Another article dating from 6 days ago by Ron Paul

HON. RON PAUL OF TEXAS
Before the U.S. House of Representatives

May 2, 2006

What Congress Can Do About Soaring Gas Prices

Gasoline prices are soaring and the people are screaming. And they want something done about it—now!

$100 rebate checks to American motorists won’t cut it, nor will mandatory mileage requirements for new vehicles. Taxing oil profits will only force prices higher. But there are some very important things we can do immediately to help.

First: We must reassess our foreign policy and announce some changes. One of the reasons we went into Iraq was to secure “our” oil. Before the Iraq war oil was less than $30 per barrel; today it is over $70. The sooner we get out of Iraq and allow the Iraqis to solve their own problems the better. Since 2002 oil production in Iraq has dropped 50%. Pipeline sabotage and fires are routine; we have been unable to prevent them. Soaring gasoline prices are a giant unintended consequence of our invasion, pure and simple.

Second: We must end our obsession for a military confrontation with Iran. Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, and according to our own CIA is not on the verge of obtaining one for years. Iran is not in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and has a guaranteed right to enrich uranium for energy—in spite of the incessant government and media propaganda to the contrary. Iran has never been sanctioned by the UN Security Council. Yet the drumbeat grows louder for attacking certain sites in Iran, either by conventional or even nuclear means. Repeated resolutions by Congress stir up unnecessary animosity toward Iran, and create even more concern about future oil supplies from the Middle East. We must quickly announce we do not seek war with Iran, remove the economic sanctions against her, and accept her offer to negotiate a diplomatic solution to the impasse. An attack on Iran, coupled with our continued presence in Iraq, could hike gas prices to $5 or $6 per gallon here at home. By contrast, a sensible approach toward Iran could quickly lower oil prices by $20 per barrel.

Third: We must remember that prices of all things go up because of inflation. Inflation by definition is an increase in the money supply. The money supply is controlled by the Federal Reserve Bank, and responds to the deficits Congress creates. When deficits are excessive, as they are today, the Fed creates new dollars out of thin air to buy Treasury bills and keep interest rates artificially low. But when new money is created out of nothing, the money already in circulation loses value. Once this is recognized, prices rise-- some more rapidly than others. That’s what we see today with the cost of energy.

Exploding deficits, due to runaway entitlement spending and the cost of dangerous militarism, create pressure for the Fed to inflate the money supply. This contributes greatly to the higher prices we all claim to oppose.

If we want to do something about gas prices, we should demand and vote for greatly reduced welfare and military spending, a balanced budget, and fewer regulations that interfere with the market development of alternative fuels. We also should demand a return to a sound commodity monetary system.

All subsidies and special benefits to energy companies should be ended. And in the meantime let’s eliminate federal gas taxes at the pump.

Oil prices are at a level where consumers reduce consumption voluntarily. The market will work if we let it. But as great as the market economy is, it cannot overcome a foreign policy that is destined to disrupt oil supplies and threaten the world with an expanded and dangerous conflict in the Middle East.

http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/co...6/cr050206.htm

I know they basically say the same thing but I found this comment damned interesting ...and according to our own CIA is not on the verge of obtaining one for years. Iran is not in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and has a guaranteed right to enrich uranium for energy...

Why can't they say the same thing on the news instead of spewing lies and in the process scaring shitless the population? If Iran is not violating the nonproliferation treaty, why bother splash it on national news night after night after night saying that they are?

Just a thought

[albed]

We already pay our gas 4 frigging US dollar per gallon, and that's considered a low regular price.

Do you actually buy gasoline or are you complaining about something you don't even use?

Is that why international politics concerns you; higher prices for poor little you? You're like a canadian version of Pisser.


Gold coast slave ship bound for cotton fields
Sold in a market down in New Orleans
Scarred old slaver knows he's doing alright
Hear him whip the women just around midnight
-brown looks more like red on my monitor-

Why can't they say the same thing on the news instead of spewing lies and in the process scaring shitless the population? If Iran is not violating the nonproliferation treaty, why bother splash it on national news night after night after night saying that they are?

Have you considered that the news might be telling the truth and your looney website is lying?


Try getting it from the horses mouth.

http://www.un.org/english/



http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/20...m10397.doc.htm

Secretary-General expresses hope that iran will heed international community’s concerns regarding its nuclear programme

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8679.doc.htm

“The Security Council calls upon Iran to take the steps required by the IAEA Board of Governors, notably in the first operative paragraph of its resolution GOV/2006/14, which are essential to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of its nuclear programme