Leading Global Warming Skeptic changes mind after watching Al Gore Speak

[Mazer]

We call these systems chaotic because they cannot be predicted with certainty beyond a short time span and because they are acted upon by variables that we are not aware of. Nobody knows why we had such a violent hurricane season two years ago followed by such a tame season last year. It's impossible to predict whether a storm forming off the cost of Africa will eventually destroy New Orleans, let alone what a whole hurricane season will be like. I think it's safe to say we really don't understand the weather. In all likelihood we will understand it eventually, but today the best we can do is hire glorified bookies to quote statistical probabilities.

[floydian slip]

Al Gore invented weather.

[albed]

Originally Posted by Mazer

Nobody knows why we had such a violent hurricane season two years ago followed by such a tame season last year.

You just can't stop yourself can you?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_At...rricane_season

in 2006, a rapidly-forming El Niño event, combined with the pervasive presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic and a steady presence of a robust secondary high related to the Azores high centered around Bermuda, contributed to a slow season and all tropical cyclone activity ceasing after October 2.

[Drakonix]

it has never been a matter of science.

That is very true. But the problem is that global warming (or lack thereof) is a scientific issue. The “proof” for global warming is being touted as scientifically proven fact when it is not.

I don't think we should knowingly do things that have strongly negative environmental impact.

Similarly, I do not think junk science disinformation should be allowed to set public policies, especially when the result is to stifle development and injure the economy. For example, environmental concerns are the main reason the U.S. can’t produce enough domestic oil and this in turn results on dependance upon foreign oil. Dependance on foreign oil (from the middle east) helps fund the jihad terrorism against us.

In 2005, fifteen hurricanes formed and a number of them made landfall, some causing horrendous damage. We listened to the global warming activists tell us in 2005 that more of the same was to come with severe hurricanes becoming more frequent and more powerful.

The real world experience did not verify the "doom-and-gloom" preaching. The 2006 hurricane season yielded only six hurricanes, NONE of which made landfall in the U.S..

Another indicator global warming activists tout is diminishing volume of polar ice. Some of the information in this area is contradictory. There is apparently scientific evidence that the antarctic ice is actually growing, not diminishing.

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO.../V9/N45/C2.jsp

Or, how about The Weather Channel (TWC) "climate expert" Dr. Heidi Cullen, who wants the American Meteorological Society to de-certify any broadcast meteorologist who fails to beat the "catastrophic global warming is caused by human activity" drum.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.c...a-88824bb8e528

Junk science is not real science. Scepticism and making a scientific theory stand up to it is a normal, healthy and necessary part of the scientific process. It is supposed to prevent junk science from being adopted as scientifically supported fact.

The lack of tolerance for alternate viewpoints that is being expressed could probably be described as scientific evidence that they are not being scientific.

As such, the theory itself comes under serious question as to its validity.

[Mazer]

Originally Posted by albed

You just can't stop yourself can you?

Let me rephrase (or backpedal, whichever the case may be): After such a violent hurricane season in 2005 nobody at the time could have predicted that the 2006 season would be so tame.

[albed]

I'm relatively sure that with thousands of meteorologists studying various data and forming different conclusions that one or more did predict a mild 2006 hurricane season.



But you're just steering away from your compulsion to make proclamations based on ignorance. People know what causes geomagnetic fields and many other things even if you don't.

[Mazer]

You're relatively sure that somebody accurately guessed the weather? Since you're no better informed on the subject than me your relative sureness carries just about as much weight as my so called 'proclamations.' We're both making assumptions, albed, but if you think someone predicted this last hurricane season you'll have to dig up the proof yourself.

I'm not skeptical of science, I'm skeptical of humanity's ability to fully understand chaotic systems on a global scale. If someone predicted this hurricane season then they got lucky, they beat the odds, nothing more. Unless and until meteorology gives us the ability to make detailed predictions about next season's weather, my skepticism will not be challenged. So far the most detailed prediction anyone can make is that sometime between the months of August and November tropical storms of varying intensity will form in the mid Atlantic. Of what use is such vague information to anyone?

[albed]

Originally Posted by Mazer

You're relatively sure that somebody accurately guessed the weather? Since you're no better informed on the subject than me your relative sureness carries just about as much weight as my so called 'proclamations.' We're both making assumptions, albed, but if you think someone predicted this last hurricane season you'll have to dig up the proof yourself.

All too easy.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurr...forecast_x.htm

N.C. State researchers' mild hurricane season prediction holds true

You just can't seem to grasp that other people aren't as ignorant as you.

[Mazer]

The nation's leading hurricane experts predicted a vicious 2006 storm season would spin more than a dozen strong storms out of the Atlantic Ocean, but a milder forecast from a lesser-known team in North Carolina is proving more accurate.

"Almost everyone was predicting another extremely active year — all the big names were saying the same thing," said Lian Xie, a professor of marine earth and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State University. "We were taking a chance, a risk. If we were wrong, everybody would be laughing at me."

Just as I suspected, almost all the 'scientists' got it wrong. Thanks for proving my point.