Election Predictions?

[theknife]

just a little over two weeks until the midterm Congressional elections - anybody want to predict the outcome?

Republicans currently hold the House with 231 seat to the Dem's 203 (with Foley's seat open). GOP controls the Senate 55-44 (with 1 independent).

i think the Dems will take back the House but not by much - maybe 220 to the GOP's 215. they'll come up short in the Senate, winning 48 seats to the GOP's 50 (with a Lieberman victory in CT, ostensibly as an independent, making for 2 independents seats.)

the Dems could do better, but i have a nagging feeling they may have peaked a little early. we'll see... i'm not very good at election predictions for the same reason i'm a lousy gambler - i tend to bet with my heart instead of my head.

[JackSpratts]

well, i think you're right about lieberman...unless the republican (i can't even remember his name lol) increases his lead and siphons off those conservative voters now leaning towards joe. that's beginning to happen but i don't think there's enough time so joe goes back to dc for another term. chris shays, also in ct is in a much waeker position - his last victory over the same opponent wasn't very big. the ten-termer could very well lose this time. rep jodi rell, the ct gov is a lock and as much as i like dem chris murphy personally rep nancy johnson looks fairly secure too.

i make predictions - and i'm pretty good at them - but this national campaign is too murky for my crystal ball to resolve because the voters haven't decided either. however i do see the dems taking "control" of the house for what that's worth. as for the senate, i'd love to see it, but i'm not getting that vibe right now although i'm not as pessimistic as you on that one. i think i'll pick up more in the next few days as the people themselves come to terms with it all.

- js.

[theknife]

Originally Posted by JackSpratts

well, i think you're right about lieberman...unless the republican (i can't even remember his name lol) increases his lead and siphons off those conservative voters now leaning towards joe. that's beginning to happen but i don't think there's enough time so joe goes back to dc for another term. chris shays, also in ct is in a much waeker position - his last victory over the same opponent wasn't very big. the ten-termer could very well lose this time. rep jodi rell, the ct gov is a lock and as much as i like dem chris murphy personally rep nancy johnson looks fairly secure too. - js.

the current Lieberman conspiracy theory is that he wins as an "independent", then accepts an offer to be Secretary of Defense, as Rumsfeld falls on his sword to atone for the Iraq fiasco. this then allows your Republican governor to appointment a Republican to his vacant seat, officially putting it back in GOP hands. sound plausible?

[Nicobie]

Hey Knife...

Do you think it really matters?

Save up and buy a few guns and lots of ammo. Just ask the folks in Iraq the best way to vote.

It is comming to be the same here, and U better be ready. Pretty sad when the govm'nt workers can vote their own paycheck and make the rest of the working people slaves to them. More than 1/2 of the voters now work for the gov one way or another.

[theknife]

Originally Posted by Nicobie

Hey Knife...

Do you think it really matters?

you bet i do, nic.

this election is about putting some grown-ups back into Congress.

[Mazer]

This election is about sweet revenge, knife, what the Dems are tactfully calling a referendum on the president. Grown-ups don't run for congress.

Looking over the predictions I've made on this forum over the past 4 years I don't think I'll bother to make one this year. Usually I'm pleasantly surprised by election outcomes. Besides, the ballot issues in my state are far more interesting than national politics this year, so this round of Capitol Hill Stratego is just a side show.

[Nicobie]

Originally Posted by theknife

you bet i do, nic.

This election is about putting some grown-ups back into Congress.

I hope u're right, but I broke my rose colored glasses years ago.

The best we can hope for is nobody gets control of all the branches of the gov.

The less power they have, the better we, the poor tax paying people will be.

[theknife]

Originally Posted by theknife

this election is about putting some grown-ups back into Congress.

and the issue is Iraq:

U.S. generals call for Democratic takeover
Disgusted with the leadership of the Iraq war, two retired generals say the GOP must go. Plus: More than 100 current military personnel join a campaign to get the U.S. out of Iraq -- now.

Oct. 25, 2006 | WASHINGTON -- Two retired senior Army generals, who served in Iraq and previously voted Republican, are now openly endorsing a Democratic takeover of Congress. The generals, and an active-duty senior military official, told Salon in separate interviews that they believe a Democratic victory will help reverse course from what they consider to be a disastrous Bush administration policy in Iraq. The two retired generals, Maj. Gen. John Batiste and Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, first openly criticized the handling of the war last spring, when they called for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

"The best thing that can happen right now is for one or both of our houses to go Democratic so we can have some oversight," Batiste, who led the Army's 1st Infantry Division in Iraq in 2004 and 2005, told Salon. Batiste describes himself as a "lifelong Republican." But now, he said, "It is time for a change."

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/10/25/generals/

[JackSpratts]

Originally Posted by theknife

sound plausible?

pretty wild. like myths, good conspiracy theories live because they do sound plausible. leiberman was clearly ok with something similar when he ran for vp during the previous ct republican governor's term (since jailed for corruption). had he won his seat would have been decided by that republican at a time when the senate split was razor thin. his contempt for his party and his voters came back to haunt him and was a big reason he lost the primary. ct residents are under no illusions about his character. in spite of his avuncular camouflage he is considered arrogant and supremely selfish and out for no-one save himself. not for nothing is leiberman considered the most "republican" of democratic senators. still, the new scenario you present is pretty far out, at least the defense secretary aspect. leiberman's qualifications in that dept aren't obvious, and for him to take such a job at the exact moment korea gets the bomb and iraq devolves into all out civil war couldn't be seen by him as a clever career move. as for some other position in the administration leading to the same thing senate-wise, there's the very real possibility of bush's impeachment under a democratically controlled house and any alliance with this president becomes simply too dangerous for such an ambitious narcissist. it would confirm everyone's worst take on him but i don't see it happenning.

- js.