most people who download/share music don't care about laws in place.

[relic]

from cnn:

"Two-thirds of Internet users who download music don't care whether they're violating copyright laws, according to a new survey that highlights the uphill enforcement battle facing the recording industry."

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/interne....ap/index.html

i don't see how surveying only 2,515 people is even close to measuring the concern of over 25 million people, meh 90% of studies are completly pointless or misrepresenting.

[JackSpratts]

Originally posted by relic


"Two-thirds of Internet users who download music don't care..."

i don't see how surveying only 2,515 people is even close to measuring the concern of over 25 million people, meh 90% of studies are completly pointless or misrepresenting.

and when those people find out how the laws were really passed even less of them care. for instance good luck finding out who actually voted for the dmca ("unrecorded" voice vote...).

the selling of democracy.

- js.

[pod]

Originally posted by relic
i don't see how surveying only 2,515 people is even close to measuring the concern of over 25 million people, meh 90% of studies are completly pointless or misrepresenting.

Very cute, but a sample that size is very good at representing 25,000,000 people, or ANY number of people for that matter. A common CNN poll has a error margin of 3%, which represents a sample of 1100. The key, of course, is in how the sample is picked, and how representative it is of the population you are interested in.

http://www.robertniles.com/stats/sample.shtml

[pod]

Originally posted by JackSpratts
for instance good luck finding out who actually voted for the dmca ("unrecorded" voice vote...).

The senate passed it 99-0. The house run a voice poll, but it passed with overwhelming majority. There was essentially only one representative opposing, Boucher, which may be why a speedy vote was taken. I don't know who determines whether it will be a voice vote, or how, (presumaby they don't vote on it) but I'm not an American, so at least I have a valid excuse for not knowing.

[relic]

thank you for clearing up my ignorance in the matter.

[JackSpratts]

Originally posted by pod
The house run a voice poll, but it passed with overwhelming majority. There was essentially only one representative opposing, Boucher, which may be why a speedy vote was taken. I don't know who determines whether it will be a voice vote, or how

finding out who voted for the dmca in the house is next to impossible. since you can always claim you didn't say "aye", unrecorded voice votes are strictly cya. you'd think for instance congresswoman maxine waters would brag about voting for it. she could not be more anti-filesharing but no, she does not offer her voting record on that issue. at her office they've told me more than once they "don't know" if she voted for it or not. i've asked them to ask the congresswoman personally. maybe she'd know heh. no response.

- js.

[pod]

Aha! Straight from the horse's mouth:

http://www.house.gov/rules/98-228.htm
http://www.ddal.org/howbill.html

A voice vote isn't even COUNTED. A member must call for counting to happen. For votes to be recorded (and I guess attributed to a specific member) more formalities take place. I guess no one bothered for DMCA...

I wonder how the Texas folks will vote on this one... http://thefacts.com/story.lasso?wcd=9070

[assorted]

Originally posted by pod
Very cute, but a sample that size is very good at representing 25,000,000 people, or ANY number of people for that matter. A common CNN poll has a error margin of 3%, which represents a sample of 1100. The key, of course, is in how the sample is picked, and how representative it is of the population you are interested in.

http://www.robertniles.com/stats/sample.shtml

very cute. but how exactly does one arrive at a 'error margin of 3%'? i somehow doubt it was because they occasionally poll 25,000,000 to check if they are right...

yeah, sample polling works great... just look at the last presidential election :-/

the media uses sample polling to push their own agendas, it has nothing to do with what percentages of people's actual opinions. just my opinion of course, but from using a stat based sample, i feel my opinion is agreed with by at least two thirds of all americans (with a 6% margin of error, of course) .

[pod]

The formula used to calculate the margin of error is on the page I linked to, 1/sqroot(sample size). The size of your population has nothing to do with this. I'm not a statistician, so I'll just defer to the 'here's a bunch of math, trust me, it works' method.

On the TV polls you will see an error margin of 3-5%, and the sample size is usually shown as around 1000, which works out according to the formula. There will always be uncertainty unless you're polling the entire population. But there are bigger fish to fry:

- how is the sample selected
- what/how question is asked
- how are the results aggregated (if multiple questions) and interpreted

In election polls a change poll-to-poll of 1%, when your error margin is 5%, is meaningless. Similarly, if the answers are within margin of error points of each other, it's a toss up.

Example poll with a 4% error margin:

http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml

So let's look at this particular week's poll as a repeat of the previous week's (which it was). The percentage of people who say they support Clinton is within 4 points of the percentage who said they supported Clinton the previous week (54 percent this week to 57 last week). Same goes for Dole. So statistically, there is no change from the previous week's poll. Dole has made up no measurable ground on Clinton.

I wasn't saying polls are good (or bad for that matter), just pointing out that a sample size of 2515 will give you pretty good results, better than you'd expect, IF DONE PROPERLY. Statistics, bell curve and probability kinda works in a funny way like that. And the old saying holds true: you can 'prove' anything with statistics.

As a side note, if only 30% of the eligible population votes, is that an election or a poll?

[thinker]

I took a statistics class last year - suffice it to say there are numerous ways to mislead, falsify, tweak, etc. in polls. The best way to understand polls is to know as much background on polls in general, and on whatever poll you are looking at, as possible.