15.9.2006
Optimism in the pirate camp
As the election day draws closer there is cautious optimism in the pirate camp based on various polls that keep popping up at accelerated rate.
Synovate Temo, one of the established polling institutions, is now suddenly showing 1.5 % support for Pirate party where in earlier polls party did not show up at all. These 'official' polls are likely to underestimate the real support for the pirates as they are mostly modern technology users who have long since switched to using mobile telephones, and the polling institutions still keep ignoring mobile telephone users in their polls. Various online polls and different school and special group 'test elections' have been indicating support figures in the range 10-20 %. Despite being a fresh party, the pirates have got their election machine working fairly well towards the end of the race, so the Swedes have become conscious of the pirates as a serious alternative. The membership keeps growing with dozens of new members every day. The membership-vote ratio in previous elections have been around 30. If the ratio would hold for the pirates too, with its present 9081 members Pirate party would get some 272.000 votes - this would be enough to take them to the parliament. So the chances for the victory and political breakthrough are definitely there. As the polls at the same time indicate a tight balance between traditional left-right blocks, getting into the parliament would also be likely to give the pirates just what they have been looking for from the beginning: a balance of power position where they could negotiate a good deal with either of the main blocks to drive through their agenda.
What if Pirate Party does not reach the 4 % vote thresold? Anything from 1 % upwards would still be valuable for them as a party. In the next election they would get their ballot papers printed and distributed by the state instead of having to pay and distribute them themselves as they have done now. Depending on the result they might also be able to employ some full time party workers at state's expense for the next 4 year parliamentary period.