For your consideration
The Drake Equation or
"Nc = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • fL" - This equation was developed in 1961 and many variations exist, but basically it takes estimates of
R* (or N*)-The number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy (the number in the original formula was actually a
birth rate of stars
fp-The fraction of stars with planetary systems
ne-The number of planets with the "e" quality, that is, in the "habitable zone" or capable of sustaining life as
we know it
fl-The fraction of planets where life evolves
fi-The fraction of planets where
intelligent life evolves
fc-The fraction of intelligent civilizations which arise and have the
will or desire to communicate
fL (or L)- The fraction of the planet's life during which communicating civilizations
survive
to arrive at
Nc or the number of possible communicating civilizations in
our galaxy. There is a calculator on the link above and my input calculates that this number is approximately 250,000. (more 'reasonable' estimates are considered by many prominent scientists, including Sagan, to be in a range from about 100 to 2000)
There are some inherently anthropomorphic assumptions in this equation though. The first and probably most obvious is that it calculates
exclusively civilizations in
our galaxy. This is because astrophysicists (especially in the 60's) simply failed to take technologies with the capability of transmitting any possible kind of signal, much less allowing for
physical travel through the inconceivable distances
between galaxies, seriously. The scale of these intergalactic distances is almost impossible to conceptualize, similar to the problem of visualizing how little actual mass is present in the electron clouds that constitute our physical experience, or the
display of matter. Yet the cutting edge of quantum physics indicates not only that the probability of the existence of
temporal wormholes is high, but that the material substance of everyday life is literally laced with them - that the effect of gravity is the flow of a superfluid ether toward, into, and 'back out the 'other side' of mass through 'tiny brown wormholes' and into a 'shadow world' of supersymmetry. I think all this clearly indicates that we ourselves have barely been around long enough to understand the basic functioning of reality, (even though these theories do harken back to a number of 'primitive mysticisms') much less how it might be harnessed or manipulated, and that what we now consider 'impossible' may be commonplace in the future. The distance
between galaxies may not be insurmountable to advanced species.
Another obvious preconception here is that life must evolve on
planets and under particular, narrow conditions; the presumption that all life must be almost specifically 'earth-like.'
The final, pre-millennial stress factor in this formula is evident in the generally infinitesimal values assigned to
L, where intelligent species are not given much credit for being able to transcend the cusp of an Atomic Age, or being able to migrate, adapt, and exploit other possible environments after having depleted native resources. (my own input to the Drake equation is in fact so high because I take factor
L as open-ended; if a species can do things like travel for light-years in space and technologically supersede it own biological replication, (cloning etc.) I see no reason to assume it cannot surmount extinction altogether in some form)
Mazer asks why we "
continue to insist that (we) must be inferior to other alien species." The obvious assumption is that if any species have the technological capability to travel here, they are by definition more
technologically advanced than we. Alpha Centauri, the very nearest star to our sun, is four light-years away, and not a particularly promising candidate. (for Earth-like planets, at least) Since we've only been to the moon a handful of times, have yet to set hominid foot on mars, and have not yet built any devices which have significantly traveled beyond our own solar system, we can only gague how advanced extraterrestrials in our neighborhood might be by projecting the point at which we see ourselves capable of such interstellar flight, movement or telecommunication. I think it may also be significant to note the way that Human endeavors in space already carry a profound global significance, spanning nationalistic and corporate concerns in our collective imagination, acknowledging that our survival as a species may ultimately hinge on our ability to move into and exploit space.
Another factor scientists haggle over is, to use Star Trek terminology, the existence of a
prime directive, and whether or not such would be an inherent aspect of the exploratory agendas of any exobiological intelligence we might encounter. That a
Protocol For Contact should be such a developed philosophical concern among
even our own primitive, resource obsessed, planet-mugging, post-world-war species seems fairly telling.
"Presumption of Non-Hostile Intent
This is actually one of the safest assumptions we can make regarding ETI. There is not likely to be any contention over resources to serve as a basis for hostility between intelligent species. There is likely to be lots of unused real estate in the cosmos. The scarcity of such real estate on our own planet has served as the primary grounds for conflicts that we observe between members of the animal kingdom on the one hand, and between members of our own species on the other. Consequently, it is safe to assume that "they" do not want our planet, nor do they wish to harm us. Besides, with their technical capabilities, if they wanted us out of the way, we wouldn't still be here."
Most of this document deals with the the state of our popular culture and belief systems as
elements of protocol; the effect of ETI contact in and upon the context of our own cultural and psychological conditions and the probable ability of any ETI's in the vicinity to extrapolate this effect. The whole underlying premise seems to be either that we
have not been deemed 'worthy' or 'ready' of contact by 'the extraterrestrials' themselves, (who could obviously monitor our state from a safe distance or have any number of ways to avoid detection altogether) or that any 'leaks' or 'accidental' evidence of the mere existence of extraterrestrials who do not wish to be detected have been covered up by members of our own species who deem us so unready.
A third set of possibilties is often suggested but generally taken less seriously - that ETI's have formed secret communicating allegiances with select agencies of our own species, to which they dispense certain technological advances, or have actually covertly
infiltrated the envelope of Human Culture in one way or another.
"...Presumably, the largest contingency for establishing contact with an ETI is overcoming our own developmental inadequacies, which are linked to our evolutionary stage of development. If we are not sufficiently advanced, socially, economically, politically, legally, theologically, and technologically, then we could not be expected to assimilate the discovery of ETI in a functional manner...
...These hurdles are the ELEMENTS OF PROTOCOL. The elements consist of a long list of conditions, developmental advances, and discoveries which constitute markers "for stages of development". For instance, our discovery of fossilized microbial life on Mars would constitute an important developmental marker. It would in fact be an element of protocol that we should have first discovered such microbial life, either in our own solar system, or on the planets of neighboring stars...
...We might call the detection of life in other planetary systems a "second order confirmation." ...
...By means of crossing such developmental markers, we would in fact be taking much of the potential shock away from the discovery of ETI. We would be preparing ourselves psychologically for the event...
...The successive increase in the plausibility of the idea of ETI which stems from limited informal contact would also be an important precondition or "element of protocol." In short "they" would have to contact a number of us "surreptitiously" knowing that we would relate the details of our experiences to others, and that this diffusion of knowledge would also serve as an important social impact buffer. Moreover, if we are on the verge of discovering their existence by means of our own technological developments, this would seem to place additional pressures on "them" to mitigate the impact of the contact, possibly by stepping up the number of informal contacts. The ability to detect their existence with our technology might itself be an important developmental marker and an important element of protocol..."
Now, I'm not saying Whitley Strieber's
Communion is anything other than a work of fiction, but if you've read that book, and consider that the technological advances of ETI's may penetrate and be able to manipulate the organic hologram of reality in ways incomprehensible to our present understanding, the idea of exactly
how these
"informal contacts" might be occurring... well, might make you want to get
one of these (Link courtesy Malk-a-mite) - or at least fashion a homemade tinfoil version. (you may need it shortly)
A fourth possibility, and the one I personally find the most compelling, has been alluded to many times by many Earth cultures for many centuries, and that is the possibilty that the very existence and evolution of life on our own planet was in fact
engineered by ETI.
To be continued...