If the military has learned anything from Iraq (and it is patently ridiculous to say nothing has been learned), it's how to get involved with the local people, earn their trust, and use them as informants to flush out insurgents. This is a skill very few of our soldiers had four years ago, but after three years in Iraq the troops are getting real good at gathering and applying intelligence. The field commanders are learning a lot too, and if anybody can predict what's going to happen and what needs to be done in Iran, it's definitly them. Knowing what they know, they'll be making the case to their superiors and to the president that military action in Iran would be a serious mistake, ten-fold worse than the mistake you think the Iraq war has been.
If indeed the president does make threats of bombing or invasion, he's just doing it to make the Iranian government sweat. Not surprisingly the people here at home who think Bush is a mindless warmonger believe those threats just as much as the Iranians disbelieve them.
If change is to sweep the middle east, that sweep should occur in a north-westerly direction, through Syria. The conflict in Lebanon and Israel would come to a quick end if Syria's borders were closed to Iran. Both Hezbollah and many of the insurgents in Iraq would have their supply lines to Iran severed.
|