Thanks for the news, WT - what an interesting package this time!
Quote:
Originally posted by walktalker
Online Music Worth $1.6 Bil By 2005
Much of the focus regarding the online distribution of music has been on legal maneuvering as record labels attempt to defeat file-sharing services in the courts. According to a study by market research company IDC, over the next four years consumers will see the emergence of a new way of purchasing and listening to music. The existence of free music services will inhibit the growth of fee-based music service providers (MSPs) for at least the next two years, the IDC study predicted. However, the company predicted revenues from MSPs will grow from $57.1 million in 2001 to $1.6 billion by 2005.
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/172423.html
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Studies like this rest typically on such wild and questionable assumptions that it makes them look more like wishful business plans than market researches. Revenues growing from 57 million to 1.6 billion in 4 years... what is included in the formula?
Quote:
Kevorkian [an analyst with IDC's consumer devices and technology service] said the estimate of $57.1 million in MSP revenues in 2001 assumes several paid music services actually launch by the end of the year, but she pointed out that several launches have been delayed multiple times.
As for the free services that still persist on the Web, she said whether those stick around or not is important.
"For the last year and a half, the record industry has sued file-trading based services one by one. How will that happen in the future with peer-to-peer (P2P) sharing? With Napster, files went through one server, making the company vulnerable to a lawsuit. But if files go from one person's machine to another person's computer, then what?"
Free services will be around for the foreseeable future, Kevorkian predicted, until paid services offer the things consumers want at a reasonable cost. "Only then will people respond," she said.
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So far the 'consumers' have clearly shown their love to services like Napster and Morpheus - both characteristically free, unfiltered and peer to peer in nature. Are there any signs of people getting more interested in fee services as envisioned by the RIAA? I haven't seen any.
- tg
