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Mazer · 15-08-06, 05:48 PM

Yes, civil wars can be asymetrical, but the 1:4 ratio wasn't the only thing Sinner pointed out. He also pointed out that the Sunni minority is unarmed and untrained, a result of the popular Shi'a backlash against the former Sunni regime. I think he's right, if or when a violent conflict occurs it will be entirely one-sided. The Kurds in the north may or may not take the opportunity to secede from Iraq and form their own state, but being geographically and somewhat culturally separate from the rest of Iraq, they probably wouldn't send their militias to defend or attack the Sunnis. So any sectarian conflicts are likely to be forced relocation efforts, analogous to the Trail of Tears in early American history. Iraq's borders are likely to remain the same as they are now, and it may emerge from a civil war stronger and more peaceful than ever. It would be nicer if violence didn't occur at all, but if Iraq is going to explode it might as well get it over with now before the politicans can claim that peace has been restored.

15-08-06, 05:48 PM	#6
Mazer Earthbound misfit Join Date: May 2001 Location: Moses Lake, Washington Posts: 2,563	Yes, civil wars can be asymetrical, but the 1:4 ratio wasn't the only thing Sinner pointed out. He also pointed out that the Sunni minority is unarmed and untrained, a result of the popular Shi'a backlash against the former Sunni regime. I think he's right, if or when a violent conflict occurs it will be entirely one-sided. The Kurds in the north may or may not take the opportunity to secede from Iraq and form their own state, but being geographically and somewhat culturally separate from the rest of Iraq, they probably wouldn't send their militias to defend or attack the Sunnis. So any sectarian conflicts are likely to be forced relocation efforts, analogous to the Trail of Tears in early American history. Iraq's borders are likely to remain the same as they are now, and it may emerge from a civil war stronger and more peaceful than ever. It would be nicer if violence didn't occur at all, but if Iraq is going to explode it might as well get it over with now before the politicans can claim that peace has been restored.