[Sinner]

by James Dunnigan
September 8, 2004

In Iraq, American combat losses continue at a historically low level. Since March, 2003, American troops have suffered 7,900 casualties (including 976 dead.) This is an unprecedented killed to wounded ratio of 1:7. In past wars, the ration had been 1:4 or 1:5. American combat deaths over the Summer were 42 in June, 54 in July and 66 in August. There are the equivalent of three American combat divisions in Iraq, each running several hundred patrols and other combat operations each day. Never have combat divisions, operating in hostile territory, kept their casualties this low. The news media, concentrating on any losses as the story have generally missed the historical significance of the low casualties. The American armed forces have developed new equipment, weapons and tactics that have transformed combat operations in an unprecedented way. This is recognized within the military, but is generally ignored, or misunderstood, by the general media.

The health ministry announced that 2,956 people were killed and 11,669 injured because of anti-government violence and terrorism in the last four months. That's a death rate from the violence of 48 per year per 100,000 population. This is much higher than the death rate from crime in the United States, of 5.6 per 100,000. But lower than the rate of 58 in crime ridden South Africa. However, the rate in Iraq has more than tripled, from 15 per 100,000, earlier in the year. However, the fighting has been concentrated in a few areas, as have the casualties. Najaf, where the al Sadr gunmen fought police and American troops, and in Sunni Arab areas to the north where anti-government gunmen sought to retake control of the country. Najaf accounted for 18 percent of the dead. Baghdad accounted for 28 percent of the dead. Baghdad is the target of many terrorist attacks, as well as a large Shia population, and the source of most of the al Sadr gunmen. Baghdad was also the home of many of Sadam Hussein's most dedicated followers. Only ten percent of the casualties are women and children (who make up some two thirds of the population), indicating that the losses are largely from anti-government forces fighting, without much success, coalition troops.