no question that Al Queda pays attention to US elections and seems to time actions to influence them. Bin Laden's video before the 2004 Presidential elections clearly helped BUsh close the deal. but to what end?
an interesting contrast in viewpoints as to AL Queda's interest in the elections...
here's
one theory:
Quote:
CAVUTO: Do you suspect that these insurgent attacks are timed to influence our midterm elections?
VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY: That's my belief. I think they are, very, very cognizant of our schedule, if you will. They also -- you've got to remember what the strategy is of the terrorists. They specifically can't beat us in a stand-up fight. They never have. But whether it's al Qaeda or the other elements that are active in Iraq, they are betting on the proposition they can break the will of the American people. They think we won't have the stomach for the fight long-term. Osama bin Laden says as much. He talks about this.
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Cheney doesn't actually go into why this is so - he just uses it as a springboard to peddle the "terrorists want the Dems to win" pitch. of course, selling this theory clearly benefits the GOP, but if it were true, why did Al Queda/Ben Laden raise the specter of terror precisely in time to aid the GOP's efforts to stay in power? Islamic terrorists are not stupid, and are notoriously media-savvy - it's hard to miss the connection between a pre-election appearance and a GOP victory. it's therefore hard not to conclude that, up until this point, Al Queda has wanted the GOP to remain in power.
so here's
another take on Al Queda's thinking vis a vis the elections:
Quote:
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The author's premise is that al-Qaeda has consistently intervened in American domestic politics where necessary in order to ensure that America stays in Iraq. Whenever America seems like it might withdraw, he writes, Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri pops up to remind Americans that if they do then al-Qaeda will triumph in their wake - thus goading them to remain. This predictably silences those reasonable voices calling for withdrawal, who are even accused of national treason, and strengthens the voices of stupidity. The author offers several detailed examples, including the 2004 election in which bin Laden ensured that Bush would win and continue his policies in Iraq, and a Zawahiri video last year calling on Bush to flee Iraq and admit defeat which Bush used to silence his critics. Each time al-Qaeda's leaders speak, he argues, Bush and his party are strengthened, and commit even more firmly to remaining in Iraq... while the mujahideen laugh from the depth of their souls.
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interesting to note that, from either point of view - the VP's or that of the unknown anonymous jihadist - AL Queda and the Bush administration have been political soul-mates, at least up until this point, dependent on each other to further their ambitions.
the anonymous jihadist quoted above goes on to outline the possibilities:
Quote:
But now al-Qaeda has a problem. Anyone who follows the American press or the statements of US officials can sense the spirit of defeat. Even Bush admitted that Iraq has become like Vietnam. America is searching for any way to flee from Iraq, from secret negotiations with the insurgency to attempts to change the Iraqi government to the Mecca conference to the Baker commission. In the upcoming American elections, polls show the Democratic party poised to win and Iraq to be a major issue for voters. If the Democrats win, they will have to live up to their campaign promises and increase the pressure to withdraw. Even if the Republicans win, the pressure from the American street towards withdrawal is strong on them as well.
This poses a problem for al-Qaeda, since keeping America in Iraq has been so central to its strategy. If al-Qaeda believes that this stage has accomplished its goals, then the author thinks that it will permit the withdrawal and then reap its gains. But the author says that in his personal opinion, the time for the next stage has not yet arrived, and it would be better to keep the stage of America's being stuck in Iraq extended as long as possible. Even if America has suffered many losses, he argues, it remains very powerful and would only take a couple of years to recover from Iraq and return to the field of play. The author fears that al-Qaeda's leaders will fall prey to the temptation to move on to the next stage too early, and not intervene to keep the Republicans in power and the Americans in Iraq.
Therefore, while the author does not know what al-Qaeda wil do, he thinks that al-Qaeda should seek to delay the American withdrawal as long as possible by working to ensure that Bush and the Republican Party win the coming elections. How? A televised al-Qaeda video should do the trick, whether from Zahawiri or (more likely) Bin Laden - perhaps announcing the creation of an al-Qaeda state in Afghanistan or Iraq, perhaps issuing a direct threat against America. A strike against important oil facilities in the Gulf might also do it, or against an important US ally like Britain. Either should ensure a Republican victory, he writes, and secure al-Qaeda's main strategic objective of keeping America implanted in the combat zone in Iraq.
The author doesn't know which way al-Qaeda will go, and having delivered his analysis is left sitting back and waiting to see. Total silence from al-Qaeda prior to the election should be read as a signal that its leadership believes that the time has come to move to the next phase. A tape or attack by al-Qaeda prior to the election means that its leaders are not yet satisfied with the American blood and treasure lost in Iraq and want more time before moving to the next stage. And that's where "Al-Qaeda's Scenario" leaves it.
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