P2P-Zone - Leaked memo: "Civil war in Iraq likely"

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Leaked memo: "Civil war in Iraq likely"

Quote:

William Patey, the outgoing British ambassador to Iraq, has warned British Prime Minister Tony Blair that civil war is a more likely outcome in that country than democracy.

The BBC reports that the confidential leaked memo also predicted the breakup of Iraq along ethnic lines into three separate countries. While "not hopeless," Mr. Patey wrote, it will remain a "difficult and messy" situation for the next five to ten years.

Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq – a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror – must remain in doubt."

In a comment that has been made several times in past few years by both British and US officials, Mr. Patey said "the next six months are crucial."

BBC correspondent Paul Wood said although the document does not contradict earlier statements by the British government that civil war is not imminent in Iraq, "it is a devastating official assessment of the prospects for a peaceful Iraq, and stands in stark contrast to the public rhetoric."

Multi's quote from the Connecticut thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by multi

Of course only idiots could foresee something as unimaginable as an impending civil war in Iraq , how fucking ignorant can people be ?

Let me ask, how can there be a civil war when in reality it would be 80%of the population against 20%, (if that - more like 15% but who's counting)??, also the 20% have no army, no police, no secret service. The Sunni's would be expelled, wiped out, or forced to accept the terms the Shia and Kurds deal them. I don't call that a civil war.

Quote:

This is not the recipe for civil war, it's the prelude to massacre and mass expulsion. Of the Sunni Arabs. In Iraq, everyone is aware of this, but too many foreigners, including many who should know better, just don't get it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner

(on the off-chance that wasn't rhetorical...)

what, it has to be like "the war between the north and south states" to satisfy you? few conflicts are so cleary outlined. according to dictionaries like encarta it's "war within country: a war between opposing groups within a country." seems to fit the bill, no? you're a bit of a stickler for certain accuracies aren't you so ok, with rare exceptions like the website that goes on to list all sorts of additional recent criteria, like control of land, armies etc and other think tank armchair ephemera, the historical "war among the same culture, society or nationality" covers the iraq situation.

i'm just surprised this is news. it was the outcome predicted all the way back pre-war by critics including yours truly who never bought the assinine weeks not months hearts and flowers nursery school nonsense. so there's your answer, mr **cough** republic troll **cough** who pounces each and every time i call the us a democracy. :D

- js.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner

Let me ask, how can there be a civil war when in reality it would be 80%of the population against 20%,

There are a few African coutries that seem to do very well with this ratio. Since even with an 80% edge... not everyone is going to be fighting.

Yes, civil wars can be asymetrical, but the 1:4 ratio wasn't the only thing Sinner pointed out. He also pointed out that the Sunni minority is unarmed and untrained, a result of the popular Shi'a backlash against the former Sunni regime. I think he's right, if or when a violent conflict occurs it will be entirely one-sided. The Kurds in the north may or may not take the opportunity to secede from Iraq and form their own state, but being geographically and somewhat culturally separate from the rest of Iraq, they probably wouldn't send their militias to defend or attack the Sunnis. So any sectarian conflicts are likely to be forced relocation efforts, analogous to the Trail of Tears in early American history. Iraq's borders are likely to remain the same as they are now, and it may emerge from a civil war stronger and more peaceful than ever. It would be nicer if violence didn't occur at all, but if Iraq is going to explode it might as well get it over with now before the politicans can claim that peace has been restored.

According to CNN today the US population has 12.8% blacks and 14.6% latino.

In 1/2 a doz. states (and they are the big ones) whites are the minority.

Hahahahahahaha.

Republic Troll??!! I think not old boy. But as you can see it is not much of a civil war.

Curious Malk, which countries would those be? A lot of the wars in Africa have foreigners coming in the fight in the battle. Although most Muslims are Sunni I don’t think Muslims in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Jordon wanting to go to war in Iraq. But I can see Iran and Syria jumping in for the Shia side. Just an opinion of course.