Israel, Hezbollah, Iran & You
 

While Americans and Canadians spend their summer relaxing outdoors barbecuing and roasting marshmallows over an open flame, people in Lebanon are running to the hills for cover and people in Israel are hiding out in bomb shelters. Not just another day in the Middle East. A turning point in the Middle East, one that could be very good or very bad depending on the actions and reactions of many...

If you are not up to date on Lebanon, it is a country divided after a brutal civil war, a country that has no control over the fundamentalist terrorist group Hezbollah. Syria only recently ended its occupation of Lebanon and both Syria and Iran have strong ties to Hezbollah, which has armed control over Lebanon, especially over the Lebanese border area with Israel. So when Hezbollah entered Israeli territory killed some soldiers and kidnapped two other Israeli soldiers it in effect also kidnapped all of the Lebanese people, since the Lebanese government and its military is pretty much powerless to stop Hezbollah. So while Israel takes retribution out on Hezbollah's infrastructure, the Lebanese people watch their own infrastructure crumble. Make no mistake about it there are Lebanese people that support Hezbollah but there may be an equal or more number of Lebanese people that hate Hezbollah for controlling their country and for creating the current situation. That situation could and probably will lead Lebanon to another civil war....

Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad they all want the same thing, the destruction of Israel. Now if you are not Jewish and you have no connection to Israel you might think it doesn't concern you but it does. Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad all want what is now Israel and the Palestinian territories to be under Islamic rule as well as the whole Middle East if not the entire world. Those Palestinians cheering on CNN after the World Trade Center collapsed were Hamas members. Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad have connections with not only Iran but with Osama bin Laden. They all want the same thing Islamic rule. Which is why after 9/11 when the world supported the United States, the U.S. should have taken Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad out along with the Taliban. Instead the Bush Administration took out Saddam, a secular government that fought a long war with Iran. Now that Bush took out Saddam, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has used Hezbollah to initiate a war with Israel in an attempt to gain power over the Arab world. Ahmadinejad is a mad man and one must consider him dangerous especially with Iran building a nuclear bomb...

The good news is the current fight between Israel and Hezbollah could set Hezbollah back twenty years or wipe them out completely. It also could lead to Iran getting involved which would give Israel or the United States a reason to destroy their nuclear facility before they can use it. That is the good news...

The bad news is a lot of people will die and it could turn into a world war like no other and if that is not bad enough, gas prices will go through the roof, of course that is if you can find any during a world war...

So enjoy your barbecue and your marshmallows, it is going to be a long hot summer...

The parrots really like squawking "World War" a lot lately.

I'm curious as to how you see this moving into a larger war?

What countries would be involved and why? Syria and Iran have bilaterial protection treaties with each other, but after that the model kinda falls apart.

Ok, maybe you assume other mideast countries use this as a oppurtunatey to attack Israel, sure... but who? Iraq isn't in a position anymore, Egypt has been at peace with Israel since 1979:
http://www.knesset.gov.il/process/docs/egypt_eng.htm
But granted - a more radical vein of Islam is based out of Egypt that could push for a confrontation, but at the moment it doesn't appear likely.

Jordan, unlikely:
http://www.kinghussein.gov.jo/peacetreaty.html

Saudi Arabia? Well it is the orginal home of the Wahhabists, everyone favorite brand of extremists... but the Saudi's haven't been big on direct conflict in some time - favoring the money funneling approach. Possible for insitgating problems but unlikely for starting them.

Who esle? Turkey, China, Russia, India? Who else makes this a world war? The U.S. troops aren't going near this unless Iran makes one hell of a big move and that's only because the U.S. troops are sitting literially in the middle of the conflict then.....

So again, how does this become a world war?


EDIT:
On the Syrian front:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...AC9111C90F.htm
"Syria is not Lebanon. It is not a weak state and has allies in the region who can ensure that Israel, and the US, will find themselves in an even bigger dilemma than they do now."

"Iran has the power to ensure that the American project in Iraq fails for good," Zaaby said.

"It can also threaten to cut off energy supplies and send oil prices sky-high. Israel might have the strongest military power, but power is not just about the military"
That sure as heck sounds like a country that doesn't want to get involved in a war.

Just to drive this one home:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/wo...st/17arab.html
BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 16 — With the battle between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah raging, key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming Hezbollah, underscoring in part their growing fear of influence by the group’s main sponsor, Iran.

Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts” at an emergency Arab League summit meeting in Cairo on Saturday.

whether we're on the brink of a "world war" is a purely acedemic exercise. whatever you want to call it, Israel seems to be very close to engaging Iran, which will involve us by default because anything Israel does is considered to be done with at least the implied consent, if not the actual asistance of, the US. therefore, any retaliation against the US would be considered justified by much of the Arab world (tho not so much their governments, as Malk points out above). a wider war will, at a minimum, involve Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and the US (and by default, any coalition partners that are dumb enough to still have troops in Iraq). might be a good time to buy into Venezualan oil futures...

that's some good news. in 50 years of Middle East history, including our experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, there's not much evidence that there are military solutions to these problems (in fact, just the opposite).

You're probably right. The only people who have the ability and the authority to reign in the militant Islamist factions is the rest of the collective Muslim world, in this case the member states of the Arab League. We're right to protect Israel's interests as far as they may lead to peace, but the rest of the Arab world would be so much better at it if peace is what they truely wanted. I guess the trick would be to convince Saudia Arabia and Egypt and Jordan and Iraq and a few other key players to publicly endorse Israel's sovereignty, and with those endorsements maybe Syria, Palestine, and Iran might back down too. Sounds hard, I know, but no more difficult than invading Iraq, and we could probably do it without killing anybody.

But this could all be wishfull thinking on my part.

It seems reasonable to me that if Isreal starts with a nuke... the USA has to finish it. No more Isreal.

Seems very reasonable to me.

I don't have the actual info in front of me but didn't one of them already do that? I'm pretty sure the treaty with Jordon explictly states that both countries have a "right to exist" - I don't recall enough about the treaty with Egypt to say for certain if it does as well.

Heizboolah, doin that shit... LOL
he really told them, eh?

very colorful chap ol' George..
won my heart chewing like a cow and talking like that..
but somehow I could feel the American conservative establishment cringing in horror..

Just making treaties with Israel acknowledges its existance as a state but becoming its ally would be another thing entirely. But even a verbal commitment would help defuse the movement to exterminate it and start bringing acceptance and peaceful coexistance.

While Iran did fund and support Lebanese Hizbollah during the 1980s, Tehran says it has not contributed troops or weapons in the latest violence. Israel says Iranian armaments have been fired against it.

link

Israel is obviously not just targeting the Hezbullah...the IDF is taking out roads, bridges, and other basic components of Lebanon's infrastructure:
so when does the Israeli response become disproportionate? they've already racked up 10x as many bodies...

and the US does not want to see the carnage end any time soon:
why are the 200 or so innocent civilians killed in the retaliation not a bigger tragedy than the 8 soldiers killed in the initial attack?

it is obviously convenient to US neocon policymakers to allow, if not encourage, these hostilities to further instigate action against Iran and Syria. as we have seen in Iraq, the "pro-life" Bush administration isn't particularly bothered about people getting killed in the furtherance of their political objectives.

REPO

I'm more concerned that Israel will use their nukes first against Lebanon. SO far, there is only talks that Iranians have the capabilities to build a nuke but is it now set in stone? There are no proofs that it is the case, only a scare tactic. Fact, Israel have plenty nukes while it's only wild speculations that the Iranians have one or are in the process of making one.

Lebanon has been hit repetedly and their infrastructures destroyed several times. Many canadians are stuck in south lebanon but the Isralies doesn't seem to give a flying fuck about them, like we are a sub human race or something.

The US ain't that quick to respond either since they support these insane attacks, FFS, only 2 soldier was kidnapped, why destroy their airport, the capital, Tripoly??? I heard these days that the Jordan river was going to be pumped dry on less than 2 years, might those 2 soldiers highjacking be only the excuse they needed to secure Lebanon source of water?

Oh, and I did love those isralie kids message on those bomb shells, did you know that they wished death to the US and Canada & Australia... if we stood in their way? Fregging unreal. Makes me thinks who is the real enemy here, those brainwashed isralie kids wishing us death even tho the USA is their billion's a year benefactor or the ones who try to defend their land from those invaders, they have no nukes, Israel have about 400 of them.

Israel isn't gonna nuke anybody. Nuclear weapons aren't meant to fight wars, they're meant to end them. And what kind of war would Israel be interested in ending? The kind that might otherwise lead to its destruction. This battle in Lebanon isn't that kind of war, and they're not stupid enough to bring down the wrath of all their neighbors by using a nuke.

Doctrine of Proportionality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fog...eleven_lessons

1. Empathize with your enemy.
2. Rationality will not save us.
3. There's something beyond one's self.
4. Maximize efficiency.
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war.
6. Get the data.
7. Belief and seeing are both often wrong.
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning.
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil.
10. Never say never.
11. You can't change human nature.

Man, warfare is accumulating so much bullshit; if it went back to simply raining maximum death, destruction and suffering on the enemy then there wouldn't be a new war every fucking year.



"The Fog Of War". I watched that pathetic dick McNamara try to shift the blame for his incredible stupidity in waging the Vietnam War. He hasn't learned a fucking thing.

Actually he has learned some things - like that Castro had nukes, and was begging the Russians to launch them if the US attacked. I would have paid big money to have a photo of him at the second Castro was telling him about that.

As to his rules - I have to say I can't decide on the idea of Proportionality during a war... not allowing Germany to get up off the ground after WWI helped to contribute to the problems that lead to the rise of Fascism there. But without the overwhelming force the idea of a quick war doesn't work very well.

This was a bit of a surprise...

Leading Saudi Sheik Pronounces Fatwa Against Hezbollah
http://www.nysun.com/article/36373

Pretty wimpy fatwa. Just more sunni against shia stuff and they're probably thinking Iran is more of a threat than Israel.